Wednesday, July 18, 2012

I m interested to see if these spending caps will impact how team spending on scouting amateur playe




Talent evaluators generally gave the crop of baseball prospects available in this year's draft a mediocre rating. Despite the talent available, however, this was the most intriguing draft in years because of the uncertainty created by baseball's new Collective Bargaining Agreement. One of the biggest outcomes of the new CBA is a dramatically re-structured amateur talent acquisition operated by united express airlines person usd itinerary system, one that imposes strict operated by united express airlines person usd itinerary limits (with severe penalties) on the amount operated by united express airlines person usd itinerary of money that can be spent on the draft and the international free agent market. In the draft, the new system does not level the playing field so much as it sets up a controlled spending differential based on W-L record and draft position.
operated by united express airlines person usd itinerary The signing period for drafting players was this past Friday (a much earlier date courtesy of the new system), giving the opportunity to look at what Cleveland and the AL Central competition did in the draft. It will be years before the products operated by united express airlines person usd itinerary of this draft can be evaluated, but it is possible to look at the inputs now. Baseball America's draft database is an essential link for anyone interested in the draft (and note, the list of later round picks is still being finalized).
Cleveland signed operated by united express airlines person usd itinerary all of their picks through operated by united express airlines person usd itinerary round 16, six between rounds 18-24, and four picks at the end of the draft after round 35. All told, the Indians spent approximately $4.4M in this year's draft, just below their allotted spending cap. The following table breaks down the results from the AL Central as a whole
Of the 14 picks Cleveland did not sign, ten were high school players and an additional two were JUCO players. Part of this reflects the lack of leverage available to college draftees, but it also shows the Indians aggressive approach towards selecting young talent. 17 of the Indians 40 selections were high-school players, operated by united express airlines person usd itinerary 25/40 were either operated by united express airlines person usd itinerary high-school or JUCO players. The move towards selecting younger players has been an on-going trend for Cleveland. Every draft is different in terms of its distribution of talent, but looking back a few years to 2009 where Cleveland selected and signed just one high school player (Joseph Colon, out of Puerto Rico), the difference is clear. This does not mean this draft will be better or worse than that 2009 draft, which was actually quite good ( Alex White , Jason Kipnis , Austin Adams , Cory Burns , Preston Guilmet, operated by united express airlines person usd itinerary Joe Colon, Mike Rayl, Tyler Sturdevant , Matt Packer), only that the Indians seem to be valuing youth more highly operated by united express airlines person usd itinerary in the draft, while not taking a singular approach to the draft.
Elsewhere in the AL Central, Kansas City took the most aggressive approach in the draft by a large margin, with the Twins adopting the most conservative approach by an equally large margin. The different in draft pool spending, nearly $10M between Minnesota and Detroit this year, is interesting to consider as the next few draft cycles progress. One of the criticisms regularly levied on the new CBA is that it undercut small market teams' ability to exploit the draft to their advantage. operated by united express airlines person usd itinerary Prior to this CBA, however, there was nothing preventing large market teams from pouring huge amounts of money into amateur scouting and the draft, and several clubs, notably Boston, had already begun to do so. The new system should, in theory, prevent such practices by creating set spending limits. Owing to their moderate success last season, Cleveland was hurt by these caps this year, being outspent by every team aside from Detroit in the AL Central. The biggest losers operated by united express airlines person usd itinerary with the new CBA are the amateur operated by united express airlines person usd itinerary players themselves, as they have much less negotiating leverage with teams.
Based on Baseball America's rankings, the Indians got good value out of their draft position, securing six players ranked in BA's top 151 (Tyler Naquin #25, Mitch Brown #44, Dylan Baker #82, D'Vone McClure #91, Kieren Lovegrove #131 and Josh Schubert #151) despite having only four picks in the top 150. Many of these guys have already made their pro debuts in Goodyear and Mahoning Valley, or will be doing so shortly.
I think for the most part the draft outcomes ended up matching what the CBA intentions were. There was only one first round player that wasn t signed, and a large portion of the top 10 rounds were signed. There was some strategy involved (such as drafting college seniors in an attempt to free up some cap space in order to give a draft pick an above-slot) bonus, but I didn t see any blatant circumventions of the CBA intent.
The CBA was very successful in making teams spend a designated sum of money and getting picks signed and into camp quickly. I haven t looked at the aggregate draft spending operated by united express airlines person usd itinerary this year relative to last, but my guess is it did not go down so much as it simply stopped increasing. It has the effect operated by united express airlines person usd itinerary of dramatically operated by united express airlines person usd itinerary limiting individual player operated by united express airlines person usd itinerary s leverage, though.
The CBA does have the potential to perversely incentivize tanking late in the season. While a team s draft position has always been in play, the differential value of pick #8 versus pick #18 has never been that great. But now that your total draft pool is based on your slot, there is increased value (quite literally) in getting operated by united express airlines person usd itinerary a slot or two behind other losing teams at the end of the season.
You are allowed some small amount operated by united express airlines person usd itinerary of over-spending without penalty. No team overspent to the degree of losing future picks. The Indians get no benefit from spending a little bit under, and their underspending likely reflects the fact that their unsigned picks were, in many cases, high school reaches who were pretty set to go to college. They probably didn t have enough at the end to pick up one or two more (though it is possible the above numbers aren t entirely finalized).
Overspending by a small amount, less than 5%, isn t a big deal resulting only in some luxury tax, but going over that means a team forfeits future draft picks and revenue sharing, so that is a big deal.
There is no inherent advantage operated by united express airlines person usd itinerary to staying under the cap limit, except a penny saved is a penny earned sort of thing. Regardless, the Indians signed all their top picks without operated by united express airlines person usd itinerary needing to use their full allotment, so its not like they pitched pennies operated by united express airlines person usd itinerary and failed to acquire young talent.
I m interested to see if these spending caps will impact how team spending on scouting amateur players. In particular, I know most teams employ regional scouts and cross-check the highly ranked players with their senior scouts. However, instead of watching players a handful of times, will they employ more scouts in certain territories, scouting operated by united express airlines person usd itinerary potential mid-round draftees a dozen times or more? Would this improve the success rates or mid-round talent?

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